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Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, SX Bet, Sportzino, Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, YouWager, Thrillzz, Novig, ProphetX next to the sportsbooks on every game in the next 7 days. We remove the vig from both sides and show where they disagree most.
Games compared
57
Average gap
0.5 pts
win chance, exchanges vs books
Biggest gap
1.3 pts
Iowa St. @ UCF
Biggest disagreements right now
Each row names the team the exchanges like more than the sportsbooks do. Percentages are no-vig win chances (moneyline). Sportsbooks = the average of 3+ books on that game.
| Game | Team | Exchanges | Sportsbooks | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa St. @ UCF College football · Fri, Nov 20, 6:00 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Iowa St. | 50.6% | 49.4% | +1.3 |
| Iowa @ Illinois College football · Sat, Nov 21, 2:30 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Illinois | 33.4% | 32.1% | +1.3 |
| Nashville Predators @ San Jose Sharks NHL · Sun, Nov 15, 9:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Nashville Predators | 61.1% | 59.9% | +1.3 |
| Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan College football · Tue, Nov 17, 6:00 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Eastern Michigan | 18.3% | 17.2% | +1.1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns NBA · Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Los Angeles Lakers | 58.4% | 57.3% | +1.1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings NBA · Sun, Nov 15, 9:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Oklahoma City Thunder | 80.1% | 79.1% | +1.0 |
| SMU @ Notre Dame College football · Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Notre Dame | 87.3% | 86.4% | +0.9 |
| Vanderbilt @ Florida College football · Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM EST · Kalshi, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Thrillzz | Florida | 79.8% | 78.9% | +0.9 |
| LSU @ Tennessee College football · Sat, Nov 21, 3:30 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Tennessee | 49.7% | 48.8% | +0.9 |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals NFL · Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Los Angeles Rams | 80.1% | 79.3% | +0.9 |
| Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers NBA · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Philadelphia 76ers | 71.9% | 71.1% | +0.8 |
| Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics NBA · Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Boston Celtics | 85.5% | 84.7% | +0.8 |
| Fulham @ Manchester City Premier League · Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 AM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Manchester City | 68.0% | 67.3% | +0.7 |
| Ohio St. @ Nebraska College football · Sat, Nov 21, 3:30 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Nebraska | 39.1% | 38.4% | +0.7 |
| Real Salt Lake @ Seattle Sounders MLS · Thu, Nov 19, 10:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Real Salt Lake | 51.5% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Vancouver Canucks @ Vegas Golden Knights NHL · Sun, Nov 15, 9:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Vegas Golden Knights | 78.2% | 77.5% | +0.6 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts NFL · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Indianapolis Colts | 65.7% | 65.1% | +0.6 |
| San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz NBA · Sun, Nov 15, 5:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet | San Antonio Spurs | 90.8% | 90.2% | +0.6 |
| Columbus Crew @ Inter Miami CF MLS · Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Inter Miami CF | 57.9% | 57.4% | +0.5 |
| Clemson @ Duke College football · Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Duke | 73.4% | 73.0% | +0.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans NFL · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Jacksonville Jaguars | 83.3% | 82.8% | +0.5 |
| Ole Miss @ Oklahoma College football · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Oklahoma | 56.4% | 55.9% | +0.5 |
| Sunderland @ Aston Villa Premier League · Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 AM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Sunderland | 46.2% | 45.8% | +0.4 |
| Ball St. @ Ohio College football · Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM EST · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Ohio | 74.8% | 74.4% | +0.4 |
| Arsenal @ Newcastle Premier League · Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 PM EST · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Arsenal | 83.1% | 82.7% | +0.4 |
Who takes the smallest cut?
Average margin on these same moneylines. Exchange numbers don't include their separate trading fees.
SX Bet
2.1%
48 moneylines
Novig
2.7%
60 moneylines
Polymarket US
2.8%
111 moneylines
Polymarket
3.1%
112 moneylines
ProphetX
3.1%
48 moneylines
Kalshi
3.2%
169 moneylines
YouWager
3.8%
19 moneylines
Jazz Sports
4.4%
60 moneylines
Sportsbooks (average)
4.8%
491 moneylines
Heritage Sports
5.0%
41 moneylines
Sportzino
8.3%
57 moneylines
Thrillzz
8.9%
53 moneylines
How to read this
A gap is not a free bet. Exchange prices come from an order book and can be thin, and books move at different speeds. This page shows where the two markets disagree, not who is right. For how often each book's price ends up closest to the result, see the sportsbook accuracy report.
Pregame moneylines only. Soccer includes the draw. A book counts only when both sides are quoted and its prices aren't a placeholder.
Build your own. Every price here comes from GET /v1/sports/{sport}/odds — one call returns every book and exchange on every game, player props included.
Exchanges and sportsbooks in one API
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Novig and ProphetX next to 20+ sportsbooks — with order-book size on exchange prices.