Live · updated every 10 minutes

Prediction markets vs sportsbooks

Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Novig, ProphetX next to the sportsbooks on every game in the next 7 days. We remove the vig from both sides and show where they disagree most.

Games compared
105
Average gap
0.7 pts
win chance, exchanges vs books
Biggest gap
2.7 pts
Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils

Biggest disagreements right now

Each row names the team the exchanges like more than the sportsbooks do. Percentages are no-vig win chances (moneyline). Sportsbooks = the average of 3+ books on that game.

GameTeamExchangesSportsbooksGap
Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils
NHL · Thu, Oct 1, 7:10 PM EDT · Kalshi, Polymarket
New Jersey Devils59.2%56.4%+2.7
Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks
NHL · Thu, Oct 1, 10:10 PM EDT · Kalshi, Polymarket
Edmonton Oilers65.8%63.7%+2.1
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 1:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Georgia95.1%93.1%+2.0
Florida @ Missouri
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Florida66.6%64.8%+1.8
Purdue @ Illinois
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Illinois77.4%75.6%+1.7
Minnesota Wild @ Nashville Predators
NHL · Thu, Oct 1, 8:10 PM EDT · Kalshi, Polymarket
Minnesota Wild57.7%56.0%+1.7
Chicago Blackhawks @ Vegas Golden Knights
NHL · Tue, Sep 29, 10:40 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX
Vegas Golden Knights70.9%69.2%+1.7
Buffalo Sabres @ Columbus Blue Jackets
NHL · Thu, Oct 1, 7:10 PM EDT · Kalshi, Polymarket
Buffalo Sabres50.7%49.2%+1.5
Utah State @ Boise State
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Boise State91.5%90.0%+1.5
Florida Panthers @ San Jose Sharks
NHL · Thu, Oct 1, 10:10 PM EDT · Kalshi
San Jose Sharks46.1%44.6%+1.5
Maryland @ Nebraska
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Nebraska84.8%83.3%+1.4
Wyoming @ North Dakota State
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
North Dakota State89.8%88.4%+1.4
Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche
NHL · Wed, Sep 30, 10:10 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, ProphetX
Colorado Avalanche63.7%62.3%+1.4
Stanford @ Wake Forest
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Wake Forest81.6%80.3%+1.3
UTSA @ Rice
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
UTSA80.1%78.8%+1.3
Indiana @ Rutgers
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Indiana93.6%92.4%+1.3
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Green Bay Packers64.1%62.8%+1.3
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Baltimore Ravens85.3%84.0%+1.3
Toledo @ Ball State
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 2:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Toledo90.4%89.2%+1.2
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Chicago Bears62.3%61.2%+1.2
Chicago Blackhawks @ Utah Mammoth
NHL · Thu, Oct 1, 9:10 PM EDT · Kalshi, Polymarket
Utah Mammoth64.1%63.1%+1.1
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State
College football · Thu, Oct 1, 8:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX
New Mexico State55.7%54.7%+1.1
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Detroit Lions64.1%63.0%+1.1
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Miami (OH)82.7%81.7%+1.0
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
College football · Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX
Notre Dame92.5%91.5%+1.0

Who takes the smallest cut?

Average margin on these same moneylines. Exchange numbers don't include their separate trading fees.

Polymarket
0.0%
136 moneylines
Novig
1.3%
88 moneylines
Polymarket US
1.3%
99 moneylines
ProphetX
1.6%
87 moneylines
Kalshi
2.3%
148 moneylines
Sportsbooks (average)
4.6%
1081 moneylines

How to read this

A gap is not a free bet. Exchange prices come from an order book and can be thin, and books move at different speeds. This page shows where the two markets disagree, not who is right. For how often each book's price ends up closest to the result, see the sportsbook accuracy report.

Pregame moneylines only. Soccer includes the draw. A book counts only when both sides are quoted and its prices aren't a placeholder.

Build your own. Every price here comes from GET /v1/sports/{sport}/odds — one call returns every book and exchange on every game, player props included.

Exchanges and sportsbooks in one API

Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Novig and ProphetX next to 20+ sportsbooks — with order-book size on exchange prices.