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Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, SX Bet, Sportzino, Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, YouWager, Thrillzz, Novig, ProphetX next to the sportsbooks on every game in the next 7 days. We remove the vig from both sides and show where they disagree most.
Games compared
79
Average gap
0.4 pts
win chance, exchanges vs books
Biggest gap
1.5 pts
Charlotte FC @ Portland Timbers
Biggest disagreements right now
Each row names the team the exchanges like more than the sportsbooks do. Percentages are no-vig win chances (moneyline). Sportsbooks = the average of 3+ books on that game.
| Game | Team | Exchanges | Sportsbooks | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC @ Portland Timbers MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 10:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Portland Timbers | 48.4% | 47.0% | +1.5 |
| Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs NBA · Fri, Oct 23, 9:40 PM EDT · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | San Antonio Spurs | 67.1% | 65.9% | +1.2 |
| Austin FC @ Sporting Kansas City MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 8:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Sporting Kansas City | 43.8% | 42.7% | +1.1 |
| Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder NBA · Thu, Oct 22, 9:40 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Denver Nuggets | 29.9% | 28.7% | +1.1 |
| New Mexico State @ Sam Houston College football · Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 PM EDT · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Sam Houston | 45.6% | 44.6% | +1.1 |
| Atlanta Dream @ Golden State Valkyries WNBA · Mon, Oct 19, 8:00 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, YouWager | Golden State Valkyries | 56.5% | 55.5% | +1.1 |
| Saint Louis City SC @ Real Salt Lake MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 8:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Real Salt Lake | 37.3% | 36.2% | +1.0 |
| Seattle Sounders FC @ San Diego FC MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 10:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Seattle Sounders FC | 55.2% | 54.2% | +1.0 |
| Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies NBA · Wed, Oct 21, 8:10 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Memphis Grizzlies | 48.0% | 47.1% | +0.9 |
| New York City @ Orlando City MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | New York City | 58.0% | 57.2% | +0.9 |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams NFL · Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Los Angeles Rams | 86.5% | 85.7% | +0.8 |
| Inter Miami @ New York RB MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 5:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Inter Miami | 71.6% | 70.8% | +0.8 |
| Crystal Palace @ Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League · Sun, Oct 18, 9:00 AM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Brighton & Hove Albion | 64.4% | 63.7% | +0.7 |
| Slovan Bratislava @ AS Roma Champions League · Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet | AS Roma | 82.3% | 81.6% | +0.7 |
| New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics NBA · Fri, Oct 23, 7:10 PM EDT · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | New York Knicks | 46.0% | 45.3% | +0.6 |
| Tottenham @ Chelsea Premier League · Sat, Oct 24, 12:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Chelsea | 52.6% | 52.0% | +0.6 |
| AEK Athens @ Manchester City Champions League · Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | AEK Athens | 11.5% | 10.9% | +0.6 |
| Arsenal @ Nottingham Forest Premier League · Sun, Oct 18, 11:30 AM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet | Arsenal | 85.4% | 84.7% | +0.6 |
| PSV @ FC Porto Champions League · Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM EDT · Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | FC Porto | 58.2% | 57.6% | +0.6 |
| Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers NBA · Wed, Oct 21, 10:10 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Golden State Warriors | 35.6% | 35.0% | +0.6 |
| Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons NBA · Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM EDT · Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Boston Celtics | 50.3% | 49.7% | +0.5 |
| Minnesota United FC @ Houston Dynamo FC MLS · Sat, Oct 24, 8:30 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Sportzino, Thrillzz | Houston Dynamo FC | 47.7% | 47.2% | +0.5 |
| New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears NFL · Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | New England Patriots | 46.8% | 46.2% | +0.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs NFL · Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz, YouWager | Kansas City Chiefs | 77.8% | 77.3% | +0.5 |
| Manchester City @ Aston Villa Premier League · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 AM EDT · Heritage Sports, Jazz Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Sportzino, SX Bet, Thrillzz | Aston Villa | 21.6% | 21.1% | +0.5 |
Who takes the smallest cut?
Average margin on these same moneylines. Exchange numbers don't include their separate trading fees.
ProphetX
1.2%
30 moneylines
Novig
1.9%
62 moneylines
Polymarket US
2.2%
111 moneylines
SX Bet
2.7%
59 moneylines
Polymarket
3.0%
113 moneylines
Kalshi
3.4%
159 moneylines
YouWager
4.0%
14 moneylines
Jazz Sports
4.4%
68 moneylines
Sportsbooks (average)
4.7%
713 moneylines
Heritage Sports
5.7%
63 moneylines
Sportzino
8.4%
88 moneylines
Thrillzz
9.0%
73 moneylines
How to read this
A gap is not a free bet. Exchange prices come from an order book and can be thin, and books move at different speeds. This page shows where the two markets disagree, not who is right. For how often each book's price ends up closest to the result, see the sportsbook accuracy report.
Pregame moneylines only. Soccer includes the draw. A book counts only when both sides are quoted and its prices aren't a placeholder.
Build your own. Every price here comes from GET /v1/sports/{sport}/odds — one call returns every book and exchange on every game, player props included.
Exchanges and sportsbooks in one API
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Novig and ProphetX next to 20+ sportsbooks — with order-book size on exchange prices.