Sportsbook accuracy report · last 30 days
Which sportsbook prices player props best?
We take every book's closing price on every player prop, remove the vig, and check it against the real box score — and against the other books on the exact same line. It takes every prop graded across 20+ books, which is why almost nobody publishes it.
All books
Sharpness = how much closer the book's number was to what happened than the average of the other books on the same line (basis points of Brier score; higher is better). Only Kalshi beats the market average by a clear margin. Margin = the book's cut on those lines.
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | +4.3 | Beats market | 3.3% |
| 2 | Fanatics | +2.3 | In line | 7.8% |
| 3 | Sportzino | +1.6 | In line | 7.4% |
| 4 | Unibet | +0.7 | In line | 8.1% |
| 5 | Fliff | +0.1 | In line | 10.6% |
| 6 | BetRivers | -1.3 | In line | 7.6% |
| 7 | BetOnline.ag | -2.4 | In line | 7.5% |
| 8 | theScore Bet | -2.6 | In line | 7.4% |
| 9 | 1xBet | -2.7 | In line | 7.3% |
| 10 | LowVig.ag | -2.8 | In line | 7.5% |
| 11 | Hard Rock Bet | -3.4 | Trails market | 7.3% |
| 12 | Pinnacle | -3.7 | Trails market | 6.4% |
| 13 | BetMGM | -3.9 | Trails market | 7.1% |
| 14 | ReBet | -4.3 | Trails market | 9.4% |
| 15 | DraftKings | -4.4 | Trails market | 7.2% |
| 16 | Novig | -4.6 | Trails market | 7.6% |
| 17 | Betway | -4.6 | In line | 7.5% |
| 18 | Bovada | -4.7 | Trails market | 6.8% |
| 19 | Smarkets | -5.0 | Trails market | 8.4% |
| 20 | Courtside | -6.0 | Trails market | 6.7% |
| 21 | Polymarket US | -6.3 | Trails market | 4.2% |
| 22 | ProphetX | -7.4 | Trails market | 8.9% |
| 23 | FanDuel | -10.9 | Trails market | 6.6% |
| 24 | BetUS | -17.5 | In line | 7.7% |
By sport
MLB
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportzino | +5.7 | In line | 8.2% |
| 2 | Kalshi | +4.7 | Beats market | 3.5% |
| 3 | Fanatics | +2.7 | In line | 7.8% |
| 4 | theScore Bet | +2.1 | In line | 6.6% |
| 5 | 1xBet | -1.6 | In line | 7.1% |
| 6 | Fliff | -2.6 | Trails market | 12.3% |
| 7 | Hard Rock Bet | -3.3 | Trails market | 7.3% |
| 8 | Pinnacle | -3.8 | Trails market | 6.6% |
| 9 | Novig | -3.9 | Trails market | 6.8% |
| 10 | Smarkets | -4.7 | Trails market | 8.4% |
| 11 | BetMGM | -4.7 | Trails market | 7.0% |
| 12 | Bovada | -4.9 | Trails market | 6.9% |
| 13 | DraftKings | -5.8 | Trails market | 7.2% |
| 14 | Polymarket US | -6.8 | Trails market | 4.8% |
| 15 | Courtside | -6.9 | Trails market | 6.9% |
| 16 | ProphetX | -6.9 | Trails market | 8.8% |
| 17 | BetOnline.ag | -7.0 | In line | 8.2% |
| 18 | LowVig.ag | -7.1 | In line | 8.2% |
| 19 | ReBet | -7.1 | Trails market | 8.9% |
| 20 | BetUS | -17.5 | In line | 7.7% |
| 21 | FanDuel | -48.5 | Trails market | 6.6% |
NFL
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fliff | +4.1 | In line | 9.8% |
| 2 | BetMGM | +2.9 | In line | 7.0% |
| 3 | Hard Rock Bet | +1.2 | In line | 7.7% |
| 4 | theScore Bet | +0.6 | In line | 6.6% |
| 5 | BetOnline.ag | +0.5 | In line | 6.5% |
| 6 | LowVig.ag | -0.3 | In line | 6.5% |
| 7 | Kalshi | -1.1 | In line | 1.6% |
| 8 | BetRivers | -1.4 | In line | 7.4% |
| 9 | DraftKings | -2.3 | In line | 6.3% |
| 10 | Sportzino | -2.5 | In line | 9.7% |
| 11 | Pinnacle | -2.8 | In line | 4.8% |
| 12 | Polymarket US | -4.0 | In line | 1.2% |
| 13 | Betway | -4.6 | In line | 7.5% |
| 14 | Bovada | -4.8 | In line | 6.8% |
| 15 | ProphetX | -5.1 | In line | 9.5% |
| 16 | Courtside | -5.8 | In line | 5.9% |
| 17 | Fanatics | -6.2 | In line | 7.8% |
| 18 | FanDuel | -6.2 | In line | 6.5% |
| 19 | ReBet | -6.5 | In line | 11.0% |
| 20 | Novig | -9.8 | Trails market | 9.0% |
NHL
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | +5.0 | In line | 3.9% |
| 2 | Novig | +2.0 | In line | 6.8% |
| 3 | Unibet | +1.6 | In line | 8.2% |
| 4 | ReBet | +0.5 | In line | 9.6% |
| 5 | Sportzino | -0.1 | In line | 6.5% |
| 6 | Fliff | -1.1 | In line | 9.8% |
| 7 | DraftKings | -1.4 | In line | 7.4% |
| 8 | Pinnacle | -2.5 | In line | 7.1% |
| 9 | Polymarket US | -2.8 | In line | 1.9% |
| 10 | ProphetX | -4.0 | In line | 8.4% |
| 11 | theScore Bet | -4.2 | In line | 7.7% |
| 12 | Fanatics | -4.3 | In line | 8.9% |
| 13 | Courtside | -6.8 | In line | 7.4% |
| 14 | Hard Rock Bet | -7.8 | Trails market | 7.6% |
| 15 | BetMGM | -8.8 | In line | 8.1% |
| 16 | Bovada | -9.0 | Trails market | 6.4% |
| 17 | FanDuel | -26.4 | Trails market | 6.5% |
WNBA
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | +77.5 | Beats market | 5.9% |
| 2 | Courtside | +0.2 | In line | 7.4% |
| 3 | FanDuel | -1.9 | In line | 6.9% |
| 4 | DraftKings | -2.2 | In line | 7.7% |
| 5 | ReBet | -3.7 | In line | 8.0% |
| 6 | Bovada | -4.2 | In line | 6.7% |
| 7 | Novig | -7.4 | In line | 7.0% |
| 8 | 1xBet | -8.7 | In line | 8.4% |
| 9 | Fliff | -9.5 | Trails market | 9.9% |
| 10 | ProphetX | -19.0 | Trails market | 9.3% |
College football
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportzino | +13.4 | In line | 10.7% |
| 2 | BetOnline.ag | +10.9 | In line | 6.5% |
| 3 | LowVig.ag | +10.9 | In line | 6.5% |
| 4 | Fliff | +9.8 | In line | 11.6% |
| 5 | Bovada | +1.5 | In line | 6.9% |
| 6 | Hard Rock Bet | +0.2 | In line | 6.8% |
| 7 | ReBet | -2.4 | In line | 11.0% |
| 8 | FanDuel | -3.6 | In line | 6.6% |
| 9 | theScore Bet | -4.4 | In line | 6.7% |
| 10 | Pinnacle | -14.6 | In line | 6.1% |
| 11 | ProphetX | -18.8 | Trails market | 8.4% |
Tennis
| # | Book | Sharpness | Verdict | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Courtside | +12.2 | In line | 8.6% |
| 2 | DraftKings | +5.3 | In line | 8.8% |
| 3 | Pinnacle | +5.3 | In line | 3.7% |
| 4 | Hard Rock Bet | -0.1 | In line | 7.6% |
| 5 | BetRivers | -4.2 | In line | 8.2% |
| 6 | Unibet | -5.5 | In line | 7.8% |
Sharpest book by market
How it works
Closing prices. For each book we use the last price it posted before the game started, on two-way Over/Under player props.
Same line, 3+ books. A line counts only when at least three books priced the same player, stat and number. That way every book is judged on the same bets, not on an easier mix.
Scored against the box score. We remove the vig, then score the Over probability against the official result (Brier score). Each book is compared with the average of the other books on that line. A book is marked “beats” or “trails” only when the 95% range is fully above or below zero.
Why most books trail. The average of many books is a better forecaster than almost any single book, so beating it at all is rare. Read the ranking, not just the sign.
Left out. DFS pick'em apps (their prices aren't real two-way odds). Exchange margins (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX) don't include their separate trading fees. This is a pricing report, not a betting-profit claim.
Check our work. Every number here comes from GET /v1/books/accuracy, free on every plan.
Get the data behind this report
Live odds from every book above, graded results, and closing lines — one API.